Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.854589 4.236077 4.685639 5.269254 6.032114 7.038946 8.562405
2025-01-19 3.315441 3.761841 4.329382 5.143895 6.370566 8.364384 12.677318
2025-01-26 3.102807 3.606107 4.285124 5.346917 7.182369 11.012904 27.509206
2025-02-02 2.992192 3.550990 4.346298 5.698572 8.424524 16.647084 NaN
2025-02-09 2.834880 3.404204 4.239985 5.736456 9.093171 23.579787 NaN
2025-02-16 2.716004 3.295207 4.169245 5.811422 9.922605 41.282359 NaN
2025-02-23 2.552130 3.104184 3.942944 5.538234 9.652632 49.219461 NaN
2025-03-02 2.465291 3.019476 3.877592 5.567549 10.333847 244.961095 NaN
2025-03-09 2.381605 2.932262 3.797290 5.547911 10.872284 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.285352 2.819313 3.662720 5.387665 10.797269 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.248590 2.794748 3.675634 5.552957 12.250495 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.158562 2.682125 3.525924 5.321450 11.694643 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.065843 2.564403 3.365693 5.061384 10.972191 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.999480 2.485459 3.269576 4.941912 10.922986 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.980685 2.479708 3.301319 5.127745 12.701785 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.978006 2.498883 3.379149 5.448476 16.354943 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.941623 2.461475 3.348974 5.482907 18.100472 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.911324 2.432365 3.331958 5.550971 20.766565 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.850404 2.350562 3.209498 5.302482 18.636556 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.821218 2.320034 3.183825 5.329205 20.698260 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.789372 2.283790 3.144781 5.311305 22.274576 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.746780 2.228298 3.065565 5.164995 21.201402 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.735136 2.223685 3.084925 5.315905 27.337942 NaN NaN